What to write..

For some reason I keep insisting on blogging and writing, although this blog has proven time and again that consistency is not my strongest virtue, but something always itches me to keep writing.

For today, I will not attempt to divulge some great thesis or dissect some new theory, but I will however attempt to talk a little bit about my beloved Jordan.

Any follower of the news should marvel at how Jordan managed to sniff a breeze from the "Arab spring" and expel all the negative effects of it. The demonstrations reached a few thousands but then calmed down again, though in certain parts of the country, they are still adamant if not large or numerous.

Why did Jordan manage to maintain its cool while the map around it is annoyingly bothersome? The borders of Jordan include Iraq, Syria, Palestine and Israel. If you have ever watched the news, you will know that the "neighbourhood" isn't very friendly. If you expand the radius a couple of hundred miles then Lebanon and Egypt come in focus which isn't good news either.

Yet somehow the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) in Jordan aren't mobilising like their counterparts in Egypt and Tunisia, the liberals and the leftists have no foothold in politics like in Syria and Lebanon and Iran's operatives in Jordan are, if anything, useless.

There are a number of theories I heard recently and all have valid points:

  1. Complacency: People in Jordan don't object to the status quo so much. Sure, they would like better incomes and more freedom, maybe even an election that doesn't smell or that lets you choose a Prime Minister or the Mayor of Amman, but if the price to get those thing is civil unrest for years like Egypt or even a war like Syria or Libya, then thanks, but no thanks.
  2. Lack of organization: Other than the MB, there is no other party that has any sort of popular base that can lead in any post-revolutionary government. Jordan has few if any exiled dissidents, and pragmatically speaking, the leadership was smart enough to allow all types of qualified people some role in government in its many changes and reiterations. The other backbone of political organisation which is organised labor in all its forms, is either nonexistent or again in the hand of MB. Who will ever lead in a situation of civil disobedience or revolution? I can't think of anyone

    People also look at the outcome of elections in Jordan and they can't help but be discouraged. MPs are either elected because of a tribal or ethnic setting or because of some financial setup that allows him or her to "acquire" votes based on immediate or future compensation for the electorate.
  3. Divide and rule: The population is so used to racism that any talk of any regime change or "Constitutional Democracy" will almost certainly result in the same response. A shameful exhibition of who will rule? Will the Palestinians accept an East-Banker to rule? Will the Southerners accept a person from the North to rule? Don't you know how people in Jordan are?
In conclusion, I don't know how long people will wait till reform comes to Jordan, but it seems to me that people aren't in a rush to see anything changed.

Peace, Out

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